There is a storm coming up, a very big storm, and a deadly storm. Indications multiply towards a so far significantly underestimated speed and intensity of global warming, according to that a significantly underestimated impact of climate change, and a significantly underestimated loss of biodiversity. What we need now is (1) “radical honesty” and (2) a “new way” for (global) politics.
(1) What means “radical honesty” with global warming?
“We failed to stay below the 1.5°C tipping point!“. The current “United States of America (USA) Administration” shows no interest and/or action towards mitigating global warming. The United Nations, UNDP, and UNFCCC still stress the myth, there is a chance to stay within the 1.5°C (physical) limit. They understand the 1.5°C as a “goal”. But the 1.5°C is not a “goal”, it is a tipping point within our global climate system, there is no “second chance” and there is no way back after reaching this tipping point.
Missing the (physical) limit of 1.5°C means a fast and most likely exponential temperature increase, the situation is “out of human control”, and we will see most likely devastation, faster and more sever most can currently imagine (cf. e.g. first trans- & interdisciplinary global warming scenario).
Since the climate system of our mother planet Earth is first of all inert, thus delayed, and then dynamic, this will feel like a “shark attack“. And the devastating changes for us humans within the climate system will be for centuries irreversible. In comparison, the “The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer” was adopted 1987. Prediction estimate a largely closed “Ozone hole” till ca. 2035. So we talk about ca. 50 years for recovery. The mitigation with the global ban of “ozone depleting substances” (ODS) worked out fantastic, the technical solution was there and the need for change with skin cancer at risk obvious.
It is a very different, much more difficult, and so far clearly failed story with mitigating global warming and reducing the “greenhouse gas” (GHG) emissions, already for decades.
“We can not predict any more!“. After reaching the 1.5°C tipping point (which is a more or less good estimation, the tipping point might also already reached or might be higher), self-reinforcing cycles within the dynamic climate system will be activated (e.g. more forest fires producing more GHG emissions, burned forest reducing the amount of bound greenhouse gases, increased amount of GHG in the atmosphere increasing the temperature rise) and no one, not even the best super-computer models can predict, how fast and in what way the climate system will change then.
For scientist, this is the most difficult task, to admit “we don’t know”. Knowledge is their “currency”. Scientist get paid for telling us, they understand, they “know”. Doing otherwise means loss of reputation, loss of job.
But that is exactly what we need now in this historic situation. We need the bravery of doing the exact opposite of what is expected and rewarded. We need “radical honesty” and this means, we just do not know. And this is the worst case, that can happen. And we want to get back to a situation, where we can predict, at least with some uncertainty, as soon as possible. We want to get back to a situation “under human control” as soon as possible!
(2) What means “new way” for (global) politics, what is the way out?
In our view, the first step (1) for a way out is to tell the people with “radical honesty”, what is the current situation. This will be a most likely rather divers discussion. Exactly what we need. We need that now publicly and globally. Time is up for talks behind locked doors or within some selected circles. Science has to explain, politics has to admit.
After that, there is the second step (2) for the people all over the world to have a vote on how to continue with “climate action”. It is time for a first and truly historic global direct democratic vote, a global referendum on “climate action” now.
The current approach in mitigating and reducing global GHG emissions failed, global annual GHG emissions and the global energy demand are still raising.
From change management we know, this will not be fixed with “more of the same”. “More of the same” means a deadly shark attack for (not thousands, not millions, but) billions. Within all the (publicly financed) scientific papers and discussions I know, this is uncontested and unquestioned.
Direct democracy means, first and foremost, taking on responsibility. The sovereign is the people and the decisions are made by the majority. We think, it is time for this “new way”. It is time to give the power (back) to the people. It is time for a first official and binding referendum on “climate action” now.
This may sound paradox for many, but for us it is clear. The best way out of this in our view most deadly situation in human history is the good “old fashioned” (direct) democracy. New is its dimension. We need it on a global scale. Global warming, climate change, and the loss of biodiversity is a global issue and effects every single person on our mother planet Earth.
This text is not about “science” or “physics” or “truth” or “being right or wrong”, it is not a “positivism approach”, it is a “heuristic approach” and it is about honesty, bravery, leadership, responsibility, prosperity, and humanity.
“It is ok to fail with mitigating global warming. There will be some change but not much harm.”
The old story – “narrative” – mostly from politicians, who want to stay in power.
“Change” is for many a inconvenient, but basically “positive” development. Global warming, climate change, and the loss of biodiversity is not “ok” or “just inconvenient”. It is dynamic, devastating, potentially deadly for billions, and after reaching the 1.5°C tipping point in 2029 “out of human control”.
“Mitigating global warming is too big to fail! We need a new way out. This way starts with global direct democracy, now!”
The new story – “narrative” – mostly from people, who see the world like children.
You like that?
Than you can support our current fundraising champagne: “A global vote on “climate action” now!“
picture shows Andreas Achenbach: Storm at Sea off the Norwegian Coast, 1837, Städel Museum, Frankfurt am Main (2025/08/08)