The 2026 “Munich Security Conference” (MSC) with this year’s headline “The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics” shows the highest standard of political debate and journalism. I very much appreciate the strength of plural discussion, style and grace, good manners and intellectual depth. Well chosen topics professionally moderated with eloquent participants and almost fully open to witness via the World Wide Web. The MSC, rooted in the deep conviction that lasting global peace can only be achieved through dialogue, exemplifies democracy at its finest in both its organisation and its content.
Furthermore, there is progress towards the most important security issue we currently have – the emission of “greenhouse gases” (GHG), global warming, climate disruption, and the loss of biodiversity. During the 60th MSC in 2024, this topic was relegated to the sidelines of the agenda (cf. “60th ‘Munich Security Conference’ shows very strong demand for global democracy“). This year however it received attention on the main stage with the session “Playing With Fire: The Need for Decisive Climate Action”. Yet, the audience largely ignored it. The room was almost empty, as many people had other priorities. Nevertheless, the organisers demonstrated a clear understanding of the importance and criticality of GHG emissions and its significant destructive impact on potentially all currently 8.1 billion livelihoods on our mother planet Earth.
Does it always have to end in disaster?
Over the last few weeks, one news article had my full attention: “Muss es denn immer erst zur Katastrophe kommen?“, Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), Manuel Stark, 2026/01/31
Reading the headline, I thought, now someone understands what is going on with the greatest political failure in history – we as humanity failed to stay within the safe zone of GHG emissions and below an average global temperature rise of “1.5°C”. The article was not about global warming, climate disruption, and the loss of biodiversity but rather about a tragic incident where 41 people – mostly young people – lost their lives in a fire during a New-Year’s eve party in Crans-Montana (cf. “2026 Crans-Montana bar fire“).
So, the title “Playing With Fire: The Need for Decisive Climate Action” was well chosen. Whether or not it intended to reference the fire tragedy in Crans-Montana is unknown, but the cognitive pattern is exactly the same. The difference is the scale at which it happens. Instead of a tragic fire in a bar claiming 41 lives, we are confronting a global fire fuelled by greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation with the potential to kill (not hundreds, not thousands, not millions, but) billions of people and there is no technology out there to actually stop that fire.
Does the political discussions at the 62nd MSC reflect this very clear message and insight from all renowned climate scientists?
No. It shows a renewed understanding of its importance from a value and rules-based global political system. It shows a kind of refreshed understanding of the importance of democracy and – to some extent – collaboration. It also shows the understanding of the need for a strong global governance.
The current “civil war” in Iran will be remembered in history books as the first war triggered by global warming, climate disruption, and the loss of biodiversity. Severe water shortages have been a crucial driver, intensifying economic hardship and finally pushing society toward a tipping point, resulting in an escalation of anger, fury, and desperation. This unrest culminated in protests that were met with force by current leaders and decision makers in Iran.
The Crans-Montana fire and the Iran “civil war” show the exact pattern, of how politics will deal with the devastating effects of GHG emissions. The political discussions and all the impressive intellectual reference of the 62nd MSC show that we as humanity are not able to deal with complex, dynamic and inert systems. This insight is scientifically well established and proven (e.g. cf. Dörner, D.: “Die Logik des Misslingens: Strategisches Denken in komplexen Situationen”, 2002; Baumann, K.: “Organisation der Strategie. Konstruktionen und Dekonstruktionen“, Carl-Auer Verlag, 2005, p. 112ff.).
Will (global) politics be able to overcome deadly mimetic forces?
No. We currently see major political failure not only with loosing the fight for a stable and secure global climate, we also see this with skyrocketing global scams (mostly related to crypto currencies) and the destruction of human social relations by the so-called “Artificial Intelligence” (AI) – the name itself is absurd. Environmental and societal risks are growing with the accumulation of micro- and nano-plastics within our food and bodies (cf. “UNEP talks on global plastic pollution show very strong need for global democracy“). At the same time wealth is increasingly concentrated, there’s a significant increase in inequality and social media and pornography remain largely unregulated, with little to no legislative oversight. These are just a few of the most pressing examples of political failure.
We do have very simple and effective possible political actions to mitigate all of these unhealthy and dangerous developments. For mitigating global warming, all we need is a binding global market for GHG emissions (cf. “A first global binding “greenhouse gas” market for Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and Nitrous oxide (N2O) now!“) – no regulations, no rules, no prohibitions, no class fights or morality speeches needed.
What we mostly see from (global) politics is a significant increase in expenditure on weapons, drones, fighters and all kinds of outdated war equipment. All of these are certainly not capable of dealing with the actual most dangerous threats to humanity; and the proposal of a peaceful society, and destruction of all weapons would lead to amusement and laughter within the 62nd MSC community.
Are we going to have collapse?
Yes. Based on what I learnt from the profound talks at the 62nd MSC, the talks are still far away from “seeing the forest rather than the trees” and far away from a long-term healthy perspective. The current political talks are guided by mimetic forces (greed, envy, jealously, group think). There is a lot of complex thinking, understanding of interrelatedness, and honest wish for peace and prosperity.
But the reality these days is no longer decided within the MSC or the “Bayerischer Hof” in Munich, and politics has lost the battle to establish a healthy society.
For me, the most depressing moments are, when leading politicians start to talk about (1) hope. It shows powerlessness and helplessness. And when they (2) proclaim nationalism and the need for “defending national interest” as a kind of solution concept for the global (security) threats our world is facing today.
What comes after the collapse?
We will continue working towards a healthy (not a free) global society. Freedom is one of the linear concepts, which brought us into this upcoming catastrophe. Health (including love, joy, and happiness) based on strong social relationships within a plural and global democratic society, the ability to show vulnerability and the amazing power of collaboration is the new concept towards global peace and prosperity.
We will continue working towards an economic system including “externalities” within the global markets. For a healthy economy, there has to be a global binding market not only for GHG emissions but for all currently understood 9 planetary boundaries (cf. “The new healthy global economy“).
We will continue to support the work of our partners towards a strong global governance based on a global constitution, which rests on the “WHO understanding of health”, the “Universal declaration of Human Rights” and the “United Nations Charter” (cf. “Our mission“).
So far, I have not seen any current political leader or decision maker speaking publicly about global democracy. History has shown us that, despite its imperfections, democracy remains the best (probably of all the bad) concept towards a healthy society (cf. “2024 Nobel Prize supports (global) democracy).
We are convinced, the (most likely) historic way towards such a healthy and thus sustainable society is the actual development of global democracy.
picture shows 2026 “Munich Security Conference” (MSC), Bayerischer Hof – Main Stage I: Wang Yi, seated on stage at the Munich Security Conference, gestures while addressing the audience. The backdrop features the MSC logo, and a microphone in hand emphasizes his active participation in the discussion. Photo: Jan Zappner/MSC
