by Karl Baumann
Global average temperature rise has reached ca. 1.4°C in 2023 (cf. e.g. WMO, Copernicus, NOAA) and shows a time lag of ca. 30 years between the emission of the GHG and the actual temperature rise (“climate lag” see graph). GHG sinks like the ocean, the terrestrial surface (e.g. forests, plants, and soil), and the atmosphere were able to delay the temperature rise.
Based on that, we already emitted enough GHG into the atmosphere of our planet Earth to have a global average temperature rise of at least 2.2°C till ca. 2050 (in comparison to the global average between 1850-1900) with a very optimistic linear projection. Since the GHG sinks seem to be full (cf. e.g. ocean temperatures are rising), annual GHG emissions where not stable within the last 30 years (significantly increasing ca. 42%), the time lag between emitting the GHG and the temperature rise will shorten, and the temperature increase caused by the GHG emissions within the last 30 years will most likely impact global warming, climate change, and the loss of biodiversity significantly more than previous 30 years. We expect an exponential increase.
This means, climate “tipping points” (cf. e.g. McKay et al.) will be reached, and unstoppable global warming self-reinforcing cycles activated (e.g. burning forests emitting additional GHG which leads to additional temperature rise and this leads to additional burning forests). Thus, global warming, climate change, and the loss of biodiversity is in our view already within the status of “partly out of human control”.
read about our ongoing research projects:
The new healthy global society
The new healthy global economy
Global democracy & healthy technology
Trans- & interdisciplinary global warming scenario
read our latest research papers:
2026/06 by Barbara Poecher:
How the “AI-mediated Third Space” can develop healthy “artificial intelligence”
2026/06 by Adulum Hafsha Ismail:
The philosophy of a healthy and thus sustainable (global) society
2026/05 by Juan David Rojas Calle:
Why the post-fossil era requires global democracy and a global GHG market
2026/03 by Karl Baumann:
How global warming will affect global population – a first theory
2026/03 by Juan David Rojas Calle:
From geopolitical fragmentation to a healthy global economy: A call for systemic renewal
2026/02 by Karl Baumann:
The philosophy of a healthy and thus sustainable (global) society
2025/12 by Karl Baumann:
The new way to successful mitigation of global warming
2024/04 by Karl Baumann:
First trans- and interdisciplinary global warming scenario
2024/04 by Karl Baumann:
Temperature rise will be exponential
2024/04 by Karl Baumann:
Temperature rise shows ca. 30 years delay