The successful mitigation of global warming, climate disruption, and biodiversity loss is theoretically “simple” – to achieve this, we need a working global binding market for “greenhouse gas” (GHG) emissions, based on “science based targets” and supported by global direct democracy.
There is so much noise around how to actually mitigate global warming, so we want to clarify: what matters most is keeping things as simple as possible – even if the underlying correlations are admittedly very complex.
We need at least minus 10% GHG emissions every year
To mitigate global warming, climate disruption, and biodiversity loss, we have to reduce global annual GHG emissions according to IPCC by minus ca. 10% every year within the upcoming 25 years:
- minus ca. 40% till 2030
- minus ca. 75% till 2050
Currently, there is a fast growing “structural gap” between this target (see blue line in the following graph) and the actual development (orange line in the following graph).
Achieving this remains extremely challenging – if not impossible – given the following realities:
- global energy demand continues to rise,
- energy supply and transportation remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels,
- meat consumption is still seen as a status symbol in many parts of the world, and
- the timeframe for the required reductions is exceptionally short.
The necessary transformation will demand unprecedented global effort and cooperation.
Reducing annual GHG emissions is 100% within the responsibility of (global) politics. The most effective political tool to achieve the necessary reductions is a binding global market for GHG emissions. Such a market would encompass the three most critical greenhouse gases:
- Carbon dioxide (CO₂) – ca. 75% of GHG emissions
- Methane (CH₄) – ca. 20 of GHG emissions
- Nitrous oxide (N₂O) – ca. 5% of GHG emissions
Current solutions show significant gaps
The “World Bank Group” tracks the development of a (global) “Carbon dioxide” (CO2) market – “Methane” (MH4), and “Nitrous oxide” (N2O) are not included – from 1990 till today (cf. “State and Trends of Carbon Pricing Dashboard“). The data shows significant gaps and weaknesses, and it focuses solely on “Carbon” (see the following map).
(carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org)
Nevertheless, in our view, the best solution to bring down GHG emissions and actually mitigating global warming is a global binding market for GHG emissions, based on “science based targets” (cf. sciencebasedtargets.org). This approach does not require further regulation – it simply necessitates accurate accounting of GHG emissions.
The “planetary boundaries” define the volume of GHG emissions traded
The concept of “Planetary Boundaries” (see the graph from the “Stockholm Resilience Centre“) explains the volumes of “common goods” possible for a sustainable production of goods and delivery of services globally.
Globally working markets for all of these “common goods” are necessary. We recommend to start with the most important: a global binding market for GHG emissions, primarily driven by burning fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) and industrial meat production.
Such a market is in our view most important and urgently needed to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe caused by global warming, climate disruption, and the loss of biodiversity (cf. e.g. “Trans- & interdisciplinary global warming scenario“).
see graph with global “greenhouse gas” emissions including Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and Nitrous oxide (N2O) (klick to enlarge):
see graph with “greenhouse gas” emissions per major regions or countries (klick to enlarge):
see Ed Hawkins “Global Warming Stripes 1850-2024” (showyourstripes.info):
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